What’s Next? Making Sense of the Future

As we tentatively emerge from the restrictions imposed by the Global Pandemic, we suggest to leaders that it is What’s Next that matters. And yet we are aware that conditions remain volatile making traditional methods of strategy difficult.

In this 3 part series we argue that now we must form a longer-term view, and we offer a route through from formation of strategy to execution.

At the end of each blog you will find a link to a Facilitation Pack that can help you work through the topic in your own context. This week we start with making sense of the future.

The most downloaded App of 2020 was TikTok. The BBC described it as “the most beguiling and maligned app of the year.” Most notably TikToK played a significant role in the Black Lives Matters campaign by promoting the topic leading to 23 billion views.

That is mind-blowing in its own right.  Then you may recall President Trump wanted to ban the app, and many would argue there are grounds to consider how safe it is to share data with the platform, but perhaps the President’s motivation was the extent to which anti-Trump protests were gathering traction through the app. Beyond politics, TiKTok is influencing the way consumers absorb fashion, music and comedy. It is a superb example of an accelerating and disruptive trend that business must take notice of.

McKinsey have published research to show that the Pandemic has accelerated the technology mega trend that we were witnessing before the Pandemic hit. They are now forecasting that 25% of people worldwide will need to switch jobs within the next ten years, as routine and repeatable tasks are replaced by AI, Robots and Bots. The majority of the roles that are lost will be lower paid. Some new jobs will be created, although fewer in number and likely to be skilled higher paid ones. 

Some of the other mega trends have also been impacted by the pandemic. Whilst the shift in economic power from West to East continues, business do report how early on in the Pandemic the experience of supply chain interruptions led them to question whether all their eggs where in one basket. The Pandemic has taught leaders a great deal about how resilient or not their supply chain is.

All of this points to a shift in the context for most organisations. A recent Forbes study identified that some 42% of organisations strategies were no longer fit for purpose, another 20% needed major adjustment, 18% were waiting to see with the remainder having strategies that were still applicable. Have you considered which group you fit into? The rate of change is changing and we suggest that the traditional strategic planning cycle needs to be supplemented. 

For the past year, by necessity, Leaders have often been in the thick of the action responding day to day to the immediate challenge of solving critical and technical problems, such as liquidity, supply chains and social distancing. The need to survive was paramount – it can be tiring work and after a period of time can seem to be the only work.

It is unlikely go away as we continue to navigate uncertainty, but it may not be quite as crazy as it was this time last year. We can take strength from the way we have navigated our way through the most challenging of times. Whilst our crisis routine may not be gone completely, we can knowingly rely on what we have learnt about managing the crisis and create the capacity to ask “what’s next?”

We believe now is the time to create not just a new strategy but a powerful narrative that engages, energises and enthrals people. What is your strategic story, why should people listen to it and what do you want them to do with it? 

As a leader you can no longer rely on the future to be “roughly” like the past, whatever comes into play will be different at both a contextual and emotional level. The future you were aiming at in your five-year plan no longer exists and you need to use your balcony work and create time for yourself and others to consider what the patterns mean and what the emerging future(s) might look like.

Beginning with understanding your organisation Purpose is a great place to start. Last year we shared with you the story of Morrison’s, one of the big UK food retailers. At the outset of the Pandemic their CEO met with his team and asked them to consider the purpose of Morrison’s. The answer was that it remained unchanged. It was to feed the nation. What had shifted was the context in which they executed that purpose.

Understanding this led to the retailer leading innovations in supply chain, in consumer access and of course safety. So, the first step is to unify behind your purpose and do not pass go until all agree.

Context is trickier! You are looking to spot and place your bets on how you think things might be but how do you do that, after all as Nobel prize winning physicist Niels Bohr said, “prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.” The best bet is to notice the trends in your environment and then build plausible scenarios around them.

Take AO.Com the online retailer of appliances. They have had an 88% increase in UK sales in the past year to 31 March 2021. With revenue up 62% to £1.66 billion. Will the reopening of the high street reverse this trend, or will it sustain? CEO John Roberts insists it will continue. He expects double digit growth arguing customers have found a better way of shopping for electronic goods. Is he right or would you expect a slowing of the trend?

We cannot know because trend data is interrupted and so leaders must create the scenarios to fully understand the options and go forward in a way that feels right aligned to their attitude to risk. Remember here that research shows the optimists are usually more successful.

The job for leaders here is to notice patterns in stakeholder behaviour and run scenarios on what this might mean. Which behaviours will sustain beyond the pandemic and which will collapse? Looking at the (mega) trends that were apparent before the pandemic might help to determine your conclusion. Ask yourself how you would like to see the trend emerge and what if anything you can do to nudge it in the direction of your choice.

It is equally important to be attentive and challenging of data, the way you gather it and how you interpretate it. Are you looking at the data through a traditional lens when your context has shifted?

If you know your purpose, have some expectation about how your stakeholders and competitors might behave then you have made sense of the opportunity that sits before you. You are ready to build your strategic narrative. 

Our first takeaway is even without unprecedented pandemic disruption the past is no longer a sure guide to the future and that leaders must unite their teams behind their enduring purpose. Traditional methods of strategy must be supplemented with scenario work, allowing leaders to build a strong narratives to explain where you are going to fulfil your purpose.

Complete the form below to download the Facilitation Pack that can help you work through the topic in your own context.

Next week we will explore how you can assess where you are “Right Here, Right Now” – a vital step in plotting the course in order to get “From Here to There”.

Murray Cook is experienced at delivering change in complex situations and developing creative solutions to strategic challenges.

Anne McCarthy is an experienced leader of change and transformation, supporting business with their people strategy and developing leaders.